In 2023, Google announced a $1 billion+ data center in Papillion, just south of Omaha. Within six months, rents in the surrounding submarket moved 8-12%. Not because the data center hired thousands of tenants. Because the announcement signaled to the market that institutional capital had validated the area. Perception shifted. Investment followed. Values climbed.

This is how economic development actually affects property values. Not directly, not immediately, but through a chain reaction of confidence, capital, population, and demand that reshapes submarkets over years. If you invest in the Omaha metro and you aren't tracking development, you're making decisions with half the picture.

The Projects That Matter Right Now

Omaha is in the middle of a development cycle that's unlike anything I have seen in my career here. Let me walk through the major ones and what they mean for real estate investors.

UNMC and the NExT Project

The University of Nebraska Medical Center is executing a $4.1 billion campus expansion called NExT (Nebraska Transformational Project). This is the single largest economic development project in Nebraska history.

What this means for property values:

Job creation. UNMC estimates 8,000-10,000 new jobs when fully operational. These aren't minimum-wage positions. They're research, medical, and administrative roles with above-average household incomes.

Housing demand. Those jobs need housing. The Midtown and South Omaha submarkets adjacent to UNMC are already seeing increased rental demand. We have tracked rent growth of 6-9% annually in the zip codes surrounding the campus over the past two years.

Infrastructure investment. The project includes streetcar expansion, road improvements, and public space development. Infrastructure investment raises property values in surrounding areas because it signals permanence and government commitment.

If you own multifamily within a two-mile radius of UNMC, your property values are going up. The question isn't if but by how much and how fast.

Costco Headquarters Expansion

Costco's decision to expand operations in the Omaha metro brought corporate jobs and reinforced the region's reputation as a headquarters city. Omaha already houses Berkshire Hathaway, Mutual of Omaha, Union Pacific, and several other Fortune 500 companies.

Corporate headquarters create a stable employment base. Stable employment means stable tenancy. Stable tenancy means lower vacancy, lower turnover, and more predictable cash flow for rental property owners.

The submarket around any major employer benefits from what I call the "halo effect." Workers want to live near their jobs. Restaurants, retail, and services follow the workers. The area improves. Property values rise.

Google Data Center

The Papillion data center is significant not just for its direct economic impact but for what it represents. When a company like Google puts a billion dollars into your market, it validates the region's infrastructure, workforce, and business climate. Other tech companies notice. Suppliers and service providers follow.

Data centers themselves don't employ huge numbers of people. Maybe 50-100 permanent positions for a facility this size. But the construction phase employs hundreds, the supply chain creates jobs, and the halo effect on the surrounding area is real.

We have already seen investor interest in the Papillion/Sarpy County market increase since the announcement. More investors competing for the same inventory means cap rate compression, which means higher property values for current owners.

Airport and Infrastructure Development

Eppley Airfield is undergoing a major terminal modernization project. The Omaha streetcar system is moving forward. Highway and interchange improvements are underway in multiple corridors.

Transportation infrastructure is one of the strongest predictors of long-term property value appreciation. Properties near transit, highways, and airports consistently outperform properties without those advantages. Not by a little. By 15-25% over a 10-year period according to most studies.

How to Think About Development as an Investor

Here's the framework I use when evaluating how development affects our portfolio and our acquisition targets.

Concentric Circles of Impact

Every major development project creates value in concentric circles.

Inner circle (0-1 mile): Direct impact. These properties see the fastest and largest appreciation. They also face the most construction disruption, traffic changes, and near-term nuisance. The risk-reward ratio is highest here.

Middle circle (1-3 miles): Secondary impact. These properties benefit from increased demand, improved infrastructure, and neighborhood improvement without the construction headaches. This is often the sweet spot for investment.

Outer circle (3-5 miles): Tertiary impact. Benefits are real but diffused. Property values rise as the overall submarket improves, but the connection to the specific development is less direct.

When UNMC's NExT project is fully operational, I expect inner-circle property values to increase 20-30% over a 10-year period. Middle-circle properties might see 12-18%. Outer circle, 5-10%. These are estimates based on comparable development impacts in similar-sized markets.

Timing Matters

Development doesn't affect property values uniformly over time. The impact follows a pattern.

Announcement phase. Speculation drives initial price movement. Smart money moves here. This is when you want to be buying, not selling.

Construction phase. Disruption suppresses some demand. Tenants deal with noise, detours, and uncertainty. Rents may flatten or grow slowly. This is when patience pays off.

Completion phase. The project opens. Jobs arrive. The vision becomes reality. This is when broad market appreciation accelerates.

Maturation phase. The area stabilizes at a new baseline. Cap rates compress to reflect the improved market. This is when you evaluate whether to hold for cash flow or sell into the appreciation.

We bought a 12-unit building near a major infrastructure corridor in 2024 during the construction phase. The area was noisy. The tenant pool was thin. We got the building at a 7.8 cap when comparable buildings in established neighborhoods were trading at 6.0-6.5 caps. Today, with construction wrapping up, similar buildings in the area are trading at 6.5 caps. Our paper value increased by roughly $120,000 without us spending a dollar on improvements.

That's development arbitrage. Buy the disruption. Hold through construction. Sell or refinance-decision-framework) into the completed project.

Not All Development Is Equal

I need to be honest about this. Not every development project is a win for property values.

Industrial development near residential areas can suppress values. Nobody wants to live next to a distribution center.

Subsidized housing concentration in a single area can depress market-rate rents if it creates an oversupply of housing units competing for the same tenant pool.

Retail development that fails leaves vacant storefronts that drag down the neighborhood.

The key is evaluating the quality, permanence, and economic multiplier of the development. A research hospital with 10,000 jobs is a fundamentally different catalyst than a call center with 200 jobs and a five-year lease.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

If you own rental property in the Omaha metro, here's what I would be doing right now.

Map your properties against active development projects. Where do your buildings sit relative to UNMC, the Google data center, the streetcar route, and the airport modernization? If you're in a halo zone, understand that your property values are likely to appreciate faster than the broader market.

Evaluate acquisition opportunities near development corridors. The best time to buy near a development project is during the construction phase when disruption suppresses demand and pricing. The worst time is after completion when everyone sees the value and cap rates have already compressed.

Stress-test your hold strategy. If you were planning to sell a property that's now in a development halo zone, reconsider. The appreciation curve may justify holding for an additional two to three years to capture the completion-phase value bump.

Watch for displacement. As neighborhoods improve, rents rise. Rising rents can push existing tenants out, which means turnover. Plan for potentially higher turnover in transitioning neighborhoods and budget accordingly.

Omaha isn't a coastal market that swings wildly on speculation. It's a Midwest market built on fundamentals: employment, affordability, and steady demand. But even fundamental markets experience inflection points, and we're in one right now. The investors who understand the development landscape and position accordingly will outperform those who treat every submarket the same.

The data is there. The projects are public. The question is whether you're paying attention.

For weekly market insights and real operator perspective, catch the Freedom Fighter Podcast on Spotify, Apple, or YouTube.

Tanner Sherman is the Principal and Managing Broker of Top Tier Investment Firm in Omaha, Nebraska. He co-hosts the Freedom Fighter Podcast with Ryan of Avara Investments.

How Economic Development in Omaha Affects Property Values